Human-Information Interaction

Developing Scenarios for Cyberspace Governance in Iran toward the 2031 Horizon

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research

Authors

Moslem Shirvani-Naghani 1
Mansour Mazhabi 2
Ebrahim Ejabi 3
Sajed Bahrami-Jaf 4

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 M.A. in Futures Studies, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran

4 Ph.D. in Political Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22034/hii.2026.115597.0
Abstract
Purpose: The growing influence of cyberspace on political, economic, cultural, and security dimensions has made its governance a strategic priority for governments. Given the uncertainty and complexity of digital transformations in Iran, this study aimed to develop plausible scenarios for cyberspace governance toward the 1410 horizon by identifying key drivers and critical uncertainties.
Method: This qualitative study employed the Global Business Network (GBN) scenario planning approach. Data were collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews with 16 experts in cyberspace governance, cybersecurity, and digital policy. Using qualitative content analysis, 184 initial factors were identified, refined into 104 drivers, and evaluated to determine 33 key drivers and critical uncertainties shaping future scenarios.
Findings: The results identified three major uncertainties influencing the future of cyberspace governance in Iran: international satellite internet development, public support for the governance system, and inter-sectoral institutional synergy. Based on these uncertainties, eight alternative futures were developed, and five plausible scenarios were finalized: “New Cyber Dawn” as the desirable scenario, “Cyber Wall,” “Dual Cyber Governance,” and “VPN Vendors’ Paradise” as intermediate scenarios, and “Cyber Storm” as the undesirable scenario.
Conclusion: The findings highlight that effective cyberspace governance requires institutional coordination, technological capability, transparent regulation, and social trust. The developed scenarios provide a strategic framework for policymakers to anticipate future challenges and design adaptive policies for strengthening cyberspace governance in Iran.

Keywords

Futures Studies
Cyberspace Governance
Scenario Planning
Key Drivers
Critical Uncertainties
Digital Governance
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Human-Information Interaction

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 26 June 2026